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METRAI
Supply Chain Diagnostic · Inventory & service analysis

Is it the forecast,
or the order, or the supply?

Find what is driving stockouts, excess inventory, and poor fill rates. METRAI traces demand, planning decisions, and supply events together, then replays alternative decisions to test the cause and estimate its business impact.

For retailers, manufacturers & distributors working to improve forecasting, allocation, and replenishment.

Free Health Check See the connected replay →

Excess Inventory

The usual explanationOver-forecast
Season peak excess Receipts (dashed) Shoppers weeks of the season
Lumpy, seasonal SKUsA small share of SKUs holds the excess30%Of excess
Forecast at the peakClose to what shoppers wantedOKWithin range
Root causeReplenishment kept ordering past the peakPast peakAttributed
Replay with an order cut-off after the peakExcess down, no new outages

Illustrative finding

How the diagnostic works

From a symptom to an evidence-backed cause.

01 · START

Start with the outcome

Begin with the stockout, promotion miss, excess inventory, or service problem that costs most.

02 · TRACE

Trace the chain

Follow demand, forecast, orders, replenishment, inventory, supply, and service.

03 · TEST

Test explanations

Separate forecast error from constrained sales, delivery delays, order logic, or supplier performance.

04 · REPLAY

Replay the fix

Replay the relevant period with one change to estimate its effect on inventory and service.

05 · PRIORITIZE

Prioritize action

Rank fixes by cause, dollars, service impact, and practical ability to act.

Many diagnostics use historical inputs and decisions your team already has. Live system access or vendor cooperation is not always required.

The diagnostic blind spot

The symptom is not always the cause.

Explore these interactive illustrations: change the assumptions and see why the forecast, order, and delivery need to be examined together.

Interactive guide
What appeared to happen

Forecast problem, or supply problem?

A promotion miss looks like a forecasting failure. Follow the evidence through the order and delivery to test that explanation.

Try the interactive guide
Interactive guide
What connected evidence can reveal

Why the shelf runs out on promotion weekends.

A reasonable forecast can still lead to empty shelves. Explore how prebuilds, order timing, and supply availability change the outcome.

Try the interactive guide

Illustrative scenarios—not client results. Both guides open in a new tab.

Connected decision replay

Follow the chain, not just the first explanation.

METRAI does not evaluate one planning output in isolation. We connect the relevant events across the flow to separate what appeared to happen from what actually drove the outcome.

DemandSignal / sales
ForecastExpectation
OrderRequest
SupplyAvailability
ServiceOutcome
↺ The outcome feeds the next planning decision
What the diagnostic can reveal

Find the cause. Quantify the impact.

Receive a cause-attribution report, estimated business impact, and improvement opportunities ranked by service, inventory, and practical ability to act.

Find the driver

  • Forecast-related versus supply-related misses
  • Where inventory became unavailable
  • Contributing forecast assumptions, order settings, processes, or supplier performance

Quantify the consequence

  • Estimated lost sales and excess inventory by supported cause
  • Effects on service levels and working capital
  • Improvement opportunities ranked by impact
Your first step

Start with the problem your team needs to explain.

The Free Health Check is an initial conversation—not a full diagnostic. We discuss the symptom, assess whether connected replay could help, and outline a practical next step.

Free Health Check
  1. Your symptomA stockout, promotion miss, excess position, or fill-rate problem.
  2. Whether we can helpWhere a diagnostic could add evidence beyond the first explanation.
  3. A sensible scopeAgree the question to investigate; no data upload is needed to book.

The scope and timing of any full diagnostic are agreed separately.